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Research on water disasters characteristics and rainfall warning threshold on the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway
ZHANG Di, QU Xiaoli, ZHANG Zhongjie, ZHANG Jinman, WANG Jie, YOU Qi
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2022, 40 (4): 677-682.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-04-0677
Abstract405)   HTML5)    PDF(pc) (1107KB)(1087)       Save

Based on the record data of water disasters and the 5-min precipitation of 40 meteorological observation stations along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway from 2017 to 2019, the characteristics of railway water disasters and precipitation distribution were analyzed, then the three precipitation factors including continuous precipitation, the hourly maximum precipitation and the 24-hour precipitation were counted, the rainfall warning thresholds of no warning, patrol warning, speed limit warning and blockade warning of railway sections in plains and mountainous areas were formulated by using the mean-standard deviation method and the maximum value method. The results show that the water disasters of the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway mainly occurred in July and August, and the duration of precipitation was mostly within 48 hours. The precipitation types causing water disasters were mainly local rainstorm, short-time heavy precipitation and long-duration precipitation, the railway water disasters in plain sections were mainly caused by local rainstorm, but the main cause of mountainous sections was long-duration precipitation. For railway section in the plain, the accuracy rate of patrol warning was 88.5%, the false rate was 11.5%, the accuracy rate of speed limit warning was 100%, for the railway section in the mountainous, the accuracy of patrols warning was 88.9% and the false rate was 11.1%. The rainfall warning threshold for railway sections in plains and mountainous areas could provide reference for safe running and efficient operation of railway.

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Formation conditions and characteristics of heavy precipitation with quasi-linear MCSs
XU Min, SHEN Fang, LIU Qiqi, LI Na, WANG Jie
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2022, 40 (4): 596-604.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-04-0596
Abstract328)   HTML3)    PDF(pc) (11788KB)(1116)       Save

Based on the observation data of national weather station, Doppler radar data, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth-generation global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) from 2010 to 2019, the echo pattern,climatic characteristics as well as the change of physical quantity of heavy precipitation with quasi-linear MCSs were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. The results are as follows: (1) There were three types of echo patterns, namely trailing stratiform (TS) type, leading stratiform (LS) type, and parallel stratiform (PS) type.TS type had the highest frequency, while LS and PS types were relatively rare. Heavy precipitation with quasi-linear MCSs had obvious characteristics of monthly and diurnal variation, and it occurred frequently in July and first half of the night. (2) The heavy precipitation with quasi-linear MCSs formed under four synoptic-scale circulation patterns, namely low trough, transverse trough, low vortex and westerly circulation types, and the low trough type was most. (3) The relatively dry and cold air coming from the west direction at 700 hPa and the low level southwest airflow acted together, and it intensified the stratification instability of the atmosphere and improved the precipitation efficiency. The larger southerly wind component of water vapor at 850 hPa was more conducive to the formation of rainfall weather with relatively small rain area but large rain intensity. The coordination of the southeasterly wind at 925 hPa significantly enlarged the heavy rainfall area. (4) The heavy precipitation with quasi-linear MCSs generated under strong thermal environment. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) varied from 316.7 to 1545.7 J·kg-1, vertical energy helicity (VEH) was positive and it was obviously greater than 2×10-4 J·m·kg-1·s-2, which were the favorable energy conditions for the formation of the heavy precipitation with quasi-linear MCSs. In the process of heavy precipitation of PS type MCSs, the upper level horizontal divergence strengthened the pumping effect, and it allowed the large ascent rate to be maintained. The superior dynamic condition was one of the important reasons for the longer duration heavy precipitation.

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Characteristics of Expressway Traffic Accident and Meteorological Warning Model Based on Logistic Regression in Hebei Province
WANG Jie, QU Xiaoli, ZHANG Jinman
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2020, 38 (2): 339-345.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2020)-02-0339
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Based on the traffic accidents data on expressway of Hebei Province and conventional observation data at 109 national weather stations from October 2015 to October 2018, the temporal variation characteristics of expressway traffic accidents and the relationship with meteorological factors in summer and winter half years were contrastively analyzed, firstly. Then, the meteorological factors which had obvious influence on traffic accidents were selected by principal component analysis method and the binary Logistic regression model was introduced to establish the meteorological early warning models of expressway traffic accidents in Hebei Province in summer and winter half years, respectively. Finally, the accuracy of two models was tested. The results show that the diurnal and monthly change characteristics of traffic accidents were obvious on expressway of Hebei Province. The frequency of traffic accident in summer half year was 1.4 times more than that in winter half year, and the monthly fluctuation in summer half year was weaker than that in winter half year. The diurnal variation of traffic accidents in summer and winter half years presented  ‘M’ pattern distribution. The traffic accidents in the daytime were more than that in the nighttime, the peak value appeared at 10:00 BST and 15:00 BST, and the traffic accidents at each time in summer half year (except from 18:00 BST to 20:00 BST) were higher than that in winter half year. The meteorological early warning model of expressway traffic accidents in Hebei integrated humidity, precipitation, wind speed and air pressure factors, while the temperature factor was also introduced in model in winter half year. The prediction accuracy of early warning model was above 99% to the samples less than or equal to the mode of traffic accidents, while that was lower to the samples above the mode, but the overall accuracy was still above 80%, which indicated that the model had a certain reference significance to expressway traffic early warning.
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Study of Quantitative Relationship Between Highway Traffic Accidents and Meteorological Conditions in Hebei Province
QU Xiaoli, LIU Huayue, QI Yuchao, FU Guiqin, ZHANG Di, WANG Jie
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2020, 38 (1): 169-175.  
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Based on traffic accidents and meteorological observation data from December 2015 to November 2018 in Hebei Province, the quantitative relationship between highway traffic accidents and meteorological conditions was analyzed. The highway traffic accidents happened more in summer and autumn than in spring and winter, and they happened more in the daytime than during nighttime. The peak value appeared in August and October, and it appeared during 09:00-11:00 and 14:00-17:00. Highway traffic accidents in Gaocheng of Shijiazhuang and Fengnan of Tangshan occurred most. Take the case of Shijiazhuang area, the response of the relative risk RR of highway traffic accidents to different meteorological elements was analyzed using the Spearman rank correlation and curve fitting method, it was found that there was a significant threshold effect of temperature on the frequency of highway traffic accidents, and the threshold of daily average temperature, the daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature  were 20 ℃, 25 ℃ and 15 ℃, respectively. When the daily minimum relative humidity exceeded 80%, the relative risk of accident increased by 3.77% for every 1% increase of relative humidity. When the maximum rain intensity increased 10 mm·h-1, the accident risk increased by 18.8%. When the visibility was less than 1000 meters, the risk of highway traffic accident decreased by 4.14% with the increase of 100 meters in the visibility.


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Galloping Characteristics of Transmission Line in Northern Hebei Province and Meteorological Elements Analysis
WANG Jie, FAN Junhong, ZHAO Zengbao, ZHANG Yanheng, YANG Linhan
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2019, 37 (6): 1021-1027.  
Abstract274)      PDF(pc) (1723KB)(1389)       Save
Based on conventional observation data during power transmission line galloping processes which happened 38 times from 2007 to 2017 in northern Hebei, the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of transmission line galloping and the relative meteorological factors were analyzed, and meteorological indices for transmission line galloping were obtained. The results are as follows: (1) The transmission line galloping in the northwest mountainous regions was more than that of the eastern coastal, which showed a slightly decreasing trend, but it was not significant. The high incidence period was from April to May, while in the eastern coastal it showed an increasing trend year by year, and passed the significance test of 0.05. The high incidence period was November. Over the past 11 years, the Gutai I line in Guyuan, Fengning and Chicheng had the most galloping accidents than others. (2) Before and after transmission line galloping, the meteorological factors needn’t have high-frequency changes. However, it was necessary to reach a certain threshold range at the same time before galloping occurrence, and the meteorological factors increased, decreased or remained unchanged in the threshold range. (3) A warmer layer or inversion layer existed near 700-850 hPa when the transmission line galloping occurred, the difference between temperature and dew point temperature below warmer layer or inversion layer was less than 2 ℃, and the water vapor in the air reached near saturation and saturation, the relative humidity was relatively small in the high-level. (4) Transmission line galloping occurred under the weather conditions of freezing rain, sleet, sleet and snow. (5) Based on the historical surface meteorological observation data and sounding data in northern Hebei, the prediction model of galloping weather was tested. It was found that the galloping situation of transmission line in northern Hebei was predicted well, which had certain guidance for the meteorological service of power grid.
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Application of Satellite Remote Sensing Technology in Drought and Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment in Jilin Province
MA Yanmin, GUO Chunming, LI Jianping,CHEN Liwen, WANG Jie WANG Ying
Journal of Arid Meteorology   
Relationship Between Air Pollution Index and Visibility,Relative Humidity in Ten Representative Cities of China
SHANG Ziwei, NING Guicai, WANG Jiexin, CHENG Yifan, WANG Shigong
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2017)-04-0590
Algorithm Improvement of Sea Fog Detection in the Daytime Based on FY-2E Data
TIAN Yongjie1, DENG Yujiao2,CHEN Wuhe1, WANG Jiechun2
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-04-0738
A Study on Refined Forecast of Cloud Cover Based on Support Vector Machine
ZHAO Wenjing1, ZHAO Zhongjun2, WANG Jiehua, SHANG Kezheng,WANG Shigong, LIU Zhihui, KONG Debing, SU Junli
Journal of Arid Meteorology   
Preliminary Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics in the Badain Jaran and Tengger Deserts
SU Junli, WANG Jiehua, LI Jiangping, SHANG Kezheng, KANG Yanzhen, JIA Xuwei, WU Zhongxun
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-02-0261
Analysis of the Relationship Between a Thunderstorm Weather and Atmospheric Environment Field
WANG Jie,YANG Yang,CAO Jijun,GAO Wuhu,NING Fan
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2014)-01-0070